SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea’s liberal opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung was expected to win a snap presidential election Tuesday, a joint exit poll and ongoing vote counts suggested. The victory would cap months of political turmoil triggered by the stunning but brief imposition of martial law by now-ousted conservative leader Yoon Suk Yeol.
It was unclear whether Lee’s election would cause any major, immediate shift in South Korea’s foreign policy. Lee, previously accused by critics of tilting toward China and North Korea and away from the U.S. and Japan, has repeatedly stressed South Korea's alliance with the U.S. as the foundation of its foreign policy.
The toughest external challenges awaiting a new president are U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and North Korea’s advancing nuclear program. But experts say whoever becomes president in South Korea cannot do much to secure major progress in South Korea’s favor on those issues.
With more than 31% of ballots counted as of 11:15 p.m., Lee, the Democratic Party candidate, led with more than 48% of votes, trailed by main conservative candidate Kim Moon Soo with 43%.
The exit poll by South Korea’s three major TV stations -– KBS, MBC and SBS -– earlier showed Lee projected to obtain 51.7% of total votes cast, beating Kim with 39.3%. Pre-election surveys suggested Lee appeared headed for an easy win, riding on deep public frustration over the conservatives in the wake of Yoon’s martial law debacle that plunged South Korea into political turmoil.
Hundreds of Lee supporters gathered outside the National Assembly, waving Korean flags and singing.
Nearly 80% of the country’s 44.4 million eligible voters cast ballots, according to an interim tally. That’s one of the highest turnouts for a presidential election in South Korea, reflecting public eagerness to move past the political turmoil.
The winning candidate will immediately be sworn in as president Wednesday for a single, full term of five years without the typical two-month transition period.
Promise to revitalize the economy
In a Facebook posting earlier Tuesday, Lee, whose Democratic Party led the legislative effort to oust Yoon, called for voters to “deliver a stern and resolute judgement” against the conservatives over martial law.
In one of his final campaign speeches Monday, Lee claimed that a win by Kim would mean the “return of the rebellion forces, the destruction of democracy and the deprival of people’s human rights.” He also promised to revitalize the economy, reduce inequality and ease national divisions.
Kim, a former labor minister under Yoon, claimed that a Lee win would allow him to wield excessive power, launch political retaliation against opponents and legislate laws to protect him from various legal troubles, as his party already controls parliament.
Lee “is now trying to seize all power in South Korea and establish a Hitler-like dictatorship,” Kim told one rally.
Pragmatic diplomacy
Lee, who served as governor of Gyeonggi province and mayor of Seongnam city, has been a highly divisive figure in politics for years.
As a former child laborer known for his inspirational rags-to-riches story, Lee came to fame through biting criticism of the country’s conservative establishment and calls to build a more assertive South Korea in foreign policy. That rhetoric has given him an image as someone who can institute sweeping reforms and fix the country’s deep-seated economic inequality and corruption.
His critics view him as a dangerous populist who relies on political division and backpedals on promises too easily.
On foreign policy, Lee has has steadfastly vowed to pursue pragmatic diplomacy. He has promised to solidify a trilateral Seoul-Washington-Tokyo partnership, a stance that is not much different than the position held by South Korea’s conservatives.
Experts say there aren’t many diplomatic options for South Korea as it tries to address Trump’s tariff hikes and calls for South Korea to pay more for the cost of the U.S. military presence, as well as North Korea’s headlong pursuit of nuclear weapons. Experts say that has made both Lee and Kim avoid unveiling ambitious foreign policy goals.
Impact of tariff hikes
Lee’s government still could become engaged in “a little bit of friction” with the Trump administration, while Kim’s government, which prioritizes relations with Washington, would likely offer more concessions to the U.S., said Chung Jin-young, a former dean of the Graduate School of Pan-Pacific International Studies at South Korea’s Kyung Hee University.
Chung predicted Lee won’t be able to pursue overly drastic steps on foreign policy and security, given the country’s foreign exchange and financial markets are vulnerable to such changes.
Lee has preached patience over Trump’s tariff policy, arguing it would be a mistake to rush negotiations in pursuit of an early agreement with Washington. Kim has said he would meet Trump as soon as possible.
On Monday, South Korean trade officials held an emergency meeting to discuss a response to Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will raise tariffs on steel and aluminum products to 50% beginning Wednesday. South Korea’s central bank last week sharply lowered its 2025 growth outlook to 0.8%, citing the potential impact of Trump’s tariff hikes and weak domestic demand worsened by the political turmoil of past months.
Relations with North Korea
Relations with North Korea remain badly strained since 2019, with the North focused on expanding its nuclear arsenal while refusing dialogues with South Korea and the U.S.
Since his second term began in January, Trump has repeatedly expressed his intent to resume diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, but Kim has so far ignored the offer while making Russia his priority in foreign policy.
Lee, who wants warmer ties with North Korea, recently acknowledged it would be “very difficult” to realize a summit with Kim Jong Un anytime soon. Lee said he would support Trump’s push to restart talks with Kim, which he believed would eventually allow South Korea to be involved in some projects in North Korea.
Foreign policy strategists for Lee understand there isn’t much South Korea can do to bring about a denuclearization of North Korea, said Paik Wooyeal, a professor at Seoul’s Yonsei University.
He said Lee also doesn’t share the Korean nationalistic zeal held by ex-liberal President Moon Jae-in, who met Kim three times during his 2017-22 term.
Hyung-jin Kim And Kim Tong-hyung, The Associated Press
