Now that the federal campaign is underway, we can watch some of the more compelling election storylines in northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan unfold.
In the newly redistricted Churchill-Keewatinook Aski riding, formerly just Churchill, incumbent New Democrat MP Niki Ashton is widely seen as a shoo-in.
She will benefit from her party’s relatively newfound status as a legitimate contender to form government. She is also a darling of First Nations, an influential constituency whose many tribulations (rightly) garner her advocacy.
Watch for Ashton to distance herself from the provincial version of her party, which is struggling in the polls and subject to multiple criticisms from northerners.
If Ashton aligns herself too closely with the Manitoba NDP, she risks being viewed as complicit in unpopular provincial moves, such as the elimination of a subsidy that ensured adequate highway bus access for northerners.
Even without the provincial NDP’s shadow, Ashton could suffer from the fact that Churchill-Keewatinook Aski swallowed up a small portion of the former Selkirk-Interlake riding, a Conservative stronghold.
But that alone won’t tip the scales in favour of the Conservatives. The Conservatives – or the Progressive Conservatives back then – have not elected an MP in northern Manitoba since 1974.
And they’re not off to a good start this election. As of Thursday afternoon, five days after the writ dropped, the Tories still had not selected a candidate for the riding.
While Flin Flon is often called an “NDP town,” the Conservatives actually won a plurality of votes in the community in 2011, besting the NDP by one tally. In Snow Lake the Tories accumulated over half the vote.
The Conservatives have pumped significant dollars into the riding – Flin Flon’s Northern Manitoba Mining Academy is among the benefactors – but they are impaired by their reputation as cigar-chomping capitalists who frown on the poor and First Nations.
Also weighing on the Tories is their nearly 10-year stretch in office. As former Flin Flon mayor Dennis Ballard once told me during a political discussion, “After a while, people just get tired of seeing your face.”
Hoping to claw their way back to national relevancy, the Liberals have nominated respected Aboriginal educator Rebecca Chartrand for MP.
The Grits are sporadically competitive in northern Manitoba and can never be counted out. Key to Chartrand’s success or failure may be how northerners respond to divisive Liberal leader Justin Trudeau.
The more interesting race this fall will take place across the border in the northern Saskatchewan riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River.
Incumbent Conservative MP Rob Clarke and Liberal challenger Lawrence Joseph will engage in a rematch four and a half years after Clarke downed Joseph by just 794 votes.
A former Mountie, Clarke has shown a willingness to tackle the tough issues. Last year, for instance, his bill to repeal the paternalistic Indian Act
became law.
While Clarke has proven popular in Creighton and Denare Beach, his party is anathema to many First Nations people, a demographic that makes up most of his riding.
Enter Joseph, the former chief of the Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations. He ran for the NDP in 2011 but has switched to the Liberals this time around.
The NDP believes it has a shot at the riding by running Georgina Jolibois, a four-term mayor of La Loche. Her resume paints a picture of a formidable candidate, but she may find herself squeezed between the big-name candidates Clarke and Joseph.
Election Day is Monday, October 19, and don’t even ask me for a prediction. As news commentators have noted, it’s the first truly three-way national race in ages.
Local Angle runs Fridays.
