Could northern Manitoba have an MP on the governing side of the aisle for the first time in nearly two decades?
Are Flin Flon, Creighton and Denare Beach really Conservative bastions?
And to what extent might national support for a particular political party translate into votes in northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan?
With Voting Day one month and a day away, these are questions worth exploring ahead of the most unpredictable federal election in memory.
Niki Ashton is, of course, favoured to prevail in the northern Manitoba riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. She’s won two elections in a row now, the most recent by 25 points.
With the NDP polling well nationally (though slightly behind the Conservatives in a poll released Tuesday), Ashton can for the first time realistically boast about leaving her opposition days behind and joining the next government.
(Northern Manitoba has not had a government MP since Elijah Harper was in for the Liberals from 1993 to 1997, with many insisting his loss was the result of the Grits’ controversial long-gun registry).
To be sure, Ashton’s style doesn’t resonate with everyone. She can rigidly adhere to the party line even when it makes no sense for her riding, such as when she voted against a motion to scrap the long-gun registry so despised by rural Canada and First Nations.
But Ashton is a passionate advocate, and if your concerns are her concerns, she’ll raise a stink like nobody’s business. If the NDP does win the election, there’s no way they’ll leave her out of their cabinet.
While Ashton will likely win Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, her performance in Flin Flon is less foreseeable. In a community sometimes called an “NDP town,” she actually lost Flin Flon to the Conservatives, albeit by one vote, in 2011.
The Tories fared even better in Creighton and Denare Beach in 2011, capturing 53 and 63 per cent of the vote respectively. That helped propel Rob Clarke to a relatively narrow win over the NDP’s Lawrence Joseph, who is now running as a Liberal.
Conservative strength locally, in a traditional NDP fortress, indicates that voters are much more flexible than given credit for. It proves that voting trends can change over time, that new voters do not necessarily carry the torch of those who came before them.
It’s quite possible the Tories did so well in Flin Flon, Creighton and Denare Beach last time because residents knew that party would form government and wanted their community to get in on the action.
With polls indicating the 2015 writ is a three-way national race, there is no safe place to park your vote if what matters most is securing a seat at the government table.
Much of the recent polling has predicted an NDP minority government, though some say the New Democrat numbers are misleading because a lot of their support is concentrated in a single province, Quebec.
Others believe the Conservatives tend to outperform their polling numbers – 31 per cent support in a poll actually means 35 or 36 per cent – and that the Tories’ durable lead in vote-rich Ontario best positions them to form government.
Few predict the Liberals will triumph, but in a minority situation they would be kingmakers.
In northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Liberals have taken to their usual approach of running respected Indigenous candidates who, they hope, can reach the large First Nations populations in both ridings. In northern Manitoba, it’s Rebecca Chartrand; in northern Saskatchewan, it’s Lawrence Joseph.
That tactic always has a chance of working, but it’s hindered by the tragically low voter turnouts on most reserves.
As far as polling goes, there’s the old saying: The only poll that matters is on Election Day.
Local Angle runs Fridays.
