Maligned by a party he helped propel to a historic victory, Clarence Pettersen isn’t putting all of his eggs in the NDP basket.
As has been widely reported, Pettersen is barred from government caucus meetings as punishment for calling on Greg Selinger to step down as premier.
At a public forum in December, Pettersen was asked what he would do if Selinger hangs on as NDP leader and refuses Pettersen’s candidacy in the next election.
“You know, in life you have options, and I have lots of options,” replied Pettersen. “I right now am NDP and I believe in their philosophy, so I’m NDP. But I do have options. I’m not going to say what those options are.”
At another point, Pettersen was slightly less ambiguous.
“Last time [the NDP won] 37 seats. We’re not going to be that lucky to have 37 seats [again],” he said. “I believe that they need the seats and I am going to run in this constituency whatever, because I believe in this constituency. Now if you can read between the lines there, I said I’m going to run ‘whatever.’ And I believe I’ll win.”
Clearly Pettersen has thought about what he would do if he’s no longer the NDP candidate in 2016. And clearly he has decided he would proceed without the NDP.
It seems unlikely Pettersen would carry another party’s banner. The Liberals are irrelevant and the PCs are anathema to much of what he stands for.
Independent?
The most likely option, therefore, would see Pettersen run as an independent.
How likely is that? Not very.
For one, it is doubtful Selinger will still be NDP leader after the party’s March 8 leadership vote. He’s too unpopular, his party too terrified of losing power.
If by some miracle Selinger does survive, he’s going to need all the friends he can get. There would be no value in prolonging his tiff with Pettersen, especially if it meant overturning the will of local New Democrats who picked Pettersen as their candidate.
There has been speculation that Pettersen is politically vulnerable after exasperating members of his base.
In 2013 he lost the formal support of Hudbay unions, who were upset that he declined to attend a rally in support of company machinists.
Pettersen’s call for Selinger to quit got him in further hot water. Some New Democrats suggested he had been disloyal and helped dragged an internal hullabaloo out into the public.
All of this has buoyed the opposition Progressive Conservatives, who are sniffing around for a well-known Flin Flon-based candidate who can take on Pettersen.
The PCs shouldn’t get too confident. The Flin Flon constituency has voted NDP since 1969, and there’s no evidence of a seismic philosophical shift just because Pettersen has made some contentious decisions.
It should further be noted that the controversy around Pettersen appears limited to Flin Flon the community. That’s not even half of the voters in Flin Flon the constituency.
Pettersen enjoys strong support on the constituency’s growing First Nations. In the 2011 election, he won all but three communities in the riding (one of those was a tie) even as he squared off against a respected Aboriginal candidate who ran for the Tories.
While Pettersen has angered some traditional allies, it is a safe bet he will win re-election so long as he is the NDP candidate.
Would Flin Flon receive better treatment from the provincial government if it was not such a safe seat for one party? Probably, but that’s not the political climate we inhabit.
Local Angle runs Fridays.
