The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
The annual global energy outlook released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is a sobering reminder of the enduring place of fossil fuels in the overall energy mix. Despite the wishes of environmentalists, shifting away from existing carbon-intensive energy systems will take generations, not years. The main fossil fuel-based energy sources that largely satisfy the consumption needs of the world's population have a bright future. According to the IEA, even if governments around the globe deliver on pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and phase out fossil fuel subsidies _ a very big 'if' _ world primary energy demand is still projected to rise by 36 per cent between 2008 and 2035. Fossil fuels account for more than half of the increase in energy use to 2035, with oil remaining the dominant individual source of energy. According to the IEA's projections, coal-fired electricity generation continues to expand on a global basis, even as reliance on coal decreases in Europe, the U.S., Canada and other developed economies. The reason for rising world coal demand lies in sustained growth in coal-fired generation in emerging markets, above all in China and India. Coal is not dying, despite frequent pronouncements to the contrary from media pundits and politicians waving green flags. The IEA also shines a spotlight on the growing importance of natural gas in the energy equation. While consumption actually fell in 2009 as the economic downturn took its toll, use of natural gas is poised to climb by 44 per cent by 2035, outpacing growth in demand for all other fossil fuels. Energy sources What about the various renewable, carbon-free energy sources touted by environmentalists? With 'new policies' in place, the IEA hopes renewables can supply one-third of the world's electricity by 2035, up from one-fifth today. Hydro-power and wind are the chief beneficiaries of this increase, though solar, geothermal and bio-mass will also play bigger roles in the future. But there is less scope to adopt renewables outside of the power sector. In the case of transportation, the IEA says renewables might meet eight per cent of global road transport fuel demand by 2035, compared to three per cent now. In heat production for industry and buildings, the IEA's 'new policies' scenario looks to renewables to provide 16 per cent of world demand a quarter-century from now, up from about 10 per cent today. All of this underscores the challenges involved in shifting energy systems away from existing fuel sources. Even with taxpayer subsidies, government-imposed rules mandating higher fuel efficiency, and greater use of renewables, it's hard to see how carbon-free energy can be expanded on the scale necessary to make a significant difference to the global energy supply mix in the next decade. This is an edited version of an editorial by Jock Finlayson, Business Council of British Columbia. It was distributed by Troy Media.
