Changes to the northern Manitoba electoral map were up for discussion at a meeting on Sept. 12.
A public hearing with members of the Manitoba Electoral Divisions Boundaries Commission (MEDBC) was held at the Victoria Inn. The main topic was the commission’s proposals for a new provincial electoral map for 2019 – one that has received criticism from Flin Flon and northern Manitoba officials.
The proposed electoral boundaries, first released in an MEDBC report in May, would bring multiple changes to northern Manitoba’s electoral map – most importantly, cutting the number of ridings in northern Manitoba from five to four and combining Flin Flon and The Pas into the same riding for the first time since the 1950s.
Along with the merger, the proposed boundaries would change most of the northern portion of the Flin Flon riding, which currently extends up to the Manitoba-Nunavut border.
The reason for the suggested change is the provincially-mandated population quotient for all electoral ridings. Data from the 2016 federal census shows the average Manitoba riding should contain 22,427 people. None of the current northern Manitoba ridings currently contain that many residents, while according to MEDBC statistics, the new, redistricted areas would. Flin Flon, at more than 30 per cent under the current quotient, is currently the least populated riding in the province.
Since provincial districts are redrawn every ten years, provincial authorities not only need to consider current populations, they must add in projections for population change.
“Some provinces don’t want to hear from MLAs, don’t want to hear from MPs, don’t want to hear from reeves or councillors or municipalities – they don’t want to hear from the politicians. We hold a different view. We want to hear from people who are representing these ridings,” said Richard Chartier, MEDBC chair and Chief Justice of Manitoba.
All five members of the public who attended the meeting in Flin Flon were either current elected officials, former elected officials or worked with elected officials.
Before taking questions from the public, Chartier said, “Our goal is to listen, not to debate.”
Reaction by attendees to the new map was unanimous – no Flin Flonners who spoke at the meeting approved of the proposed changes.
All four speakers – former city councillors Greg Bauman and Leslie Beck, Flin Flon mayor Cal Huntley and sitting Flin Flon MLA Tom Lindsey – cited differences between Flin Flon and The Pas, stating that differences in industry, economy and connections to southern Manitoba give the two towns some diverging priorities.
“What the effect of the interim report is, that Flin Flon is basically going to lose its constituency. We’re going to be amalgamated with The Pas. We have a lot of concerns about that,” said Bauman.
“The Pas and Flin Flon have very different economies. We’re mining and tourism. The Pas has a lot of government services that we don’t have – they have forestry and some tourism. The Pas’ interests, I submit, are more connected with southern Manitoba than we are.”
Huntley’s approach to the issue was simple – if it’s not broken, don’t fix it.
“The request from the community of Flin Flon would be, bare minimum, to keep it the same,” he said, saying the existing boundaries serve Flin Flon well provincially.
“I think there is some consideration to be made outside of the requirements. I believe there could be found some reason for flexibility.”
Commission member Harvey Briggs, currently the dean of arts, business and science for University College of the North and the only northern Manitoba-based member of the MEDBC, took issue with Huntley’s stance.
“If you consider your point of ‘If it’s not broke, don’t fix it’ – it was broke before. If you look at the Flin Flon riding in the past, as it exists now, there’s over 30 per cent negative deviation. We had some ridings down near Winnipeg where there was almost 20 per cent positive deviation. You now have a situation where a vote in Flin Flon counts 50 per cent more than a vote in those ridings.”
Beck said that the new boundaries neglect human factors in northern communities, adding that shifting far northwestern communities to the new proposed Kewatinook riding – which would extend from the Manitoba-Saskatchewan border to the shore of Hudson Bay and south to include Berens River – would lead to those communities being shut out of provincial debate.
A former candidate in the 2015 provincial election, Beck said she couldn’t campaign in far northern communities due to cost concerns. With the proposal putting those communities into a riding spanning tens of thousands of square kilometres, Beck feared that challenge could worsen in the future.
“I think the point to be made is, how do you allow somebody in Tadoule Lake to actually have their voice heard in legislature or in parliament? In my travels, it’s impossible,” she said.
“Do they get fair representation? They don’t even get to hear all of the people who are out there trying to represent them.”
Lindsey brought a proposal of his own to change the Flin Flon riding and add to its population, adding Wabowden and most of the far north of Manitoba, including Gillam and Churchill.
Lindsey said the area included some communities with common interests and would include communities that are accessible from other areas of his proposed riding.
“If Wabowden comes into Flin Flon, you can leave the Flin Flon constituency basically as it is. There is some history of some of those communities being part of the Flin Flon riding,” said Lindsey, who added he had spoken to residents from The Pas who were not thrilled with the proposed changes from the MEBDC.
“It’s accessible for me or whoever represents the riding. Having spoken to folks from The Pas, they’re not interested, nor do they really see the need, for the changes proposed.”
Bauman brought legal precedents and arguments to enforce several other points – namely, that northern and rural ridings should be allowed to vary from the provincial quotient and that the population counts used to determine new ridings may have inaccuracies.
In making his first point, Bauman used a Supreme Court of Canada ruling from 1991 as precedent. The ruling, which involved Saskatchewan’s provincial boundaries commission, stated that the province’s northern ridings “are in a class by themselves,” permitting up to a 50 per cent variance in population counts and justifying treating northern ridings separately from southern ridings under Section 1 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
“The legislation allows 25 per cent variance. The framers of the legislation, in my view, took into account a number of critical factors in allowing that variance. I suggest a lot of that has to do with northern representation,” said Bauman.
Bauman also cited differing population counts for several First Nations communities between the 2016 census and statistics from the same year from Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada (INAC).
“There’s a variation of almost 30 per cent, in some cases. In some cases, like Berens River, there’s an underreporting of almost a thousand people. Garden Hill was underreported by 1,400,” said Bauman.
INAC statistics for 2016 show 2,158 indigenous people living either on reserve or crown land in Berens River, while the census shows only 1,174 residents in the area. Closer to Flin Flon, INAC lists the population of Mathias Colomb Cree Nation as 2,473, while the census shows 1,724 people – a difference of more than 700 people.
Chartier said potential undercounting was mentioned in a previous MEBDC meeting in Thompson.
“What we did, the first thing, was we brought in someone from Statistics Manitoba to brief us on the concern about undercounting. He went through the last census – where there was evidence of undercounting, very clear, I think there were 15 or 16 communities where there had been undercounting. For the 2016 election, there was no significant evidence of undercounting.”
The new Flin Flon-The Pas riding could also mean taking two ridings that have historically been represented by the now-opposition NDP and combining them into one, potentially more competitive riding. If the 2015 provincial election was held using the proposed new riding, only one MLA would be elected, and the field could be close.
Using poll-by-poll vote results from Elections Manitoba to include all polls within the new riding area, the proposal would take Flin Flon – which Tom Lindsey won by 152 votes – and The Pas – where Amanda Lathlin earned a 211 vote win – and combine them into an area where NDP candidates received 100 more votes in total than PC candidates – 2250 to 2150, excluding mail-in and absentee ballots.
Chartier said the ridings were not redrawn to suit any political party of cause.
“Gerrymandering, simply put, is to fix the boundaries of the ridings to favour one political party over another. We’ll see through that and we will resist any attempts for anybody to try and work the ridings so it favours one political party.”
After completing a total of 13 scheduled meetings running until Sept. 20, MEDBC members will consider the feedback and draw up a final electoral map before Dec. 31, 2018. Chartier said public consultation was a vital part of the process.
“It’s an interim report. It’s not etched in stone. If it was etched in stone, it wouldn’t be a fair process and we’d be wasting your time and our time.”
