Polling for northern ridings forecasts Conservative, NDP wins

North Sask. riding may go blue, while northern Manitoba likely to stay NDP held

Pollsters are beginning to forecast how the northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan ridings may vote in the upcoming federal election, predicting wins for both the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) and the NDP.

According to poll aggregator 338 Canada, the riding representing much of northern Saskatchewan, including Creighton, Denare Beach, Pelican Narrows, Sandy Bay and other communities, is likely to be won by the CPC. 338 currently labels the Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River riding “CPC likely”, indicating the CPC lead the way with 39.9 per cent of the likely popular vote, according to projections released June 30. The projection for the CPC voting bloc has a margin of error of just over six per cent plus or minus, with the second-place NDP sitting second at 28 per cent, plus or minus 7.8 per cent. 338’s outcome projections gave the CPC a 96 per cent chance of winning the riding in the upcoming election, giving the NDP 3.8 per cent chance and the federal Liberals under a one per cent chance of victory. However, that margin has decreased recently – numbers current as of July 7 put the CPC’s chances of winning at a comparatively small 90 per cent, with the NDP’s chance increasing to 10 per cent.

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Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River is currently represented by NDP MP Georgina Jolibois, a former mayor of La Loche. The CPC will be represented by Meadow Lake mayor Gary Vidal in the upcoming election. Historically, the riding has swung back and forth between parties, being represented by the CPC’s Jeremy Harrison, Liberal Gary Merasty and CPC MP Rob Clarke before Jolibois won election in 2015. Meanwhile, little has changed according to projections for the riding containing Flin Flon and most of northern Manitoba. 338 lists the Churchill-Keewatinook Aski riding as “NDP likely”, according to its most projections released July 7. 338 gives the NDP and incumbent candidate Niki Ashton around a 98 per cent chance of winning the Churchill-Keewatinook Aski riding in the upcoming election, forecasting the party will win around 45 per cent of the vote. The margin of error with the latest statistics is listed as plus or minus eight per cent.

If the 45 per cent figure holds true, it would be the smallest percentage of votes for a victorious party in the riding since the 2006 federal election, which saw Liberal candidate Tina Keeper win with 41 per cent of the vote. It would also be tied for Ashton’s smallest vote percentage since taking office in 2008, having won with 48 per cent in 2008, 51 per cent in 2011 and 45 per cent in 2015. The only other party with listed odds of winning the riding, according to 338’s projections, is the federal Liberal Party with an estimated 1.8 per cent chance of victory. No other candidates or parties are listed as having above a zero per cent chance of victory.

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski has been governed either by the Liberals or NDP since 1979, when teacher Rod Murphy won election.

Nationwide, 338 is predicting a minority CPC government as the most likely result as of June 30, with about a 62 per cent chance of the CPC winning the most seats. The national polling puts the CPC and Liberals in a near dead heat in the overall popular vote at about 33 per cent each.

While an election date has not yet been confirmed, the next federal election will take place either on or before Oct. 21.


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