The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
New reports from RBC Economics spell promising economic news for Manitoba and Sask-atchewan. RBC's latest provincial outlook reports predict Manitoba's economic growth will nearly double in 2011. Robust economic growth is also expected in Sask-atchewan. According to RBC, Manitoba's economy is poised for considerable momentum over the next year with growth accelerating from a modest 1.8 per cent in 2010 to 3.5 per cent in 2011 and then moderating to a solid 3.2 per cent in 2012. "Under-performance in the province [in 2010] reflects less pronounced weakness through the recession [of 2009], when Manitoba was the only part of the country to avoid a contraction," said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. "Looking ahead, however, we project the province's economy will grow robustly and at a rate slightly higher than the national average in both 2011 and 2012." Construction A 10 per cent rise in construction volume in 2009 was a key factor tempering the impact of the US recession on Manitoba's economy. Construction spending in 2010 was expected to be flat, although a gradual strengthening in this sector is expected in 2011 and 2012, but it will still underperform relative to 2009 results. The soft patch in the US is also weighing on Manitoba's manufacturing sector in the near term. Rather than the manufacturing sector returning to growth in 2010, RBC projected a lessening in the pace of decline to two per cent from the nine per cent drop recorded in 2009, but forecasts a return to positive growth of six per cent in 2011. Manitoba's 2010 crop production was estimated to be down 21 per cent in 2010 relative to 2009. The weakness in grain production largely reflected excess moisture levels. But expectations of a return to more normal growing conditions will result in output in agriculture rebounding 10 per cent in 2011 and six per cent in 2012, RBC predicts. Saskatchewan mining Meanwhile, RBC says Saskatchewan's mining sector, including oil and gas extraction, continues to play a major role in growth patterns with real GDP projected to rise 5.3 per cent in 2011. "Saskatchewan's economic outlook is strong with potash production in particular currently experiencing a remarkable rebound with volume up almost 150 per cent through September [of 2010], marking a tremendous turnaround from 2009's staggering 66 per cent decline," said Wright. RBC says recent growth in the potash sector is expected to continue into 2011 and 2012. Provincial government revenues have also received a strong boost for the strength of the potash industry. In fact, Saskatchewan is one of only two provinces, along with Newfoundland and Labrador, projecting a budget surplus in fiscal 2010-11. Slightly weaker volumes in agriculture have placed some downward pressure on Sask-atchewan's growth. However, the return to more normal growing conditions in 2011 will result in agricultural production rebounding vigorously by 12 per cent, boosting the outlook for Saskatchewan real GDP, RBC projects. "The recovery in agriculture and continued strength in mining is expected to send Saskatchewan back to the top spot in RBC's provincial growth rankings in 2011," said Wright. While weak US growth mid year hampered certain sectors in Saskatchewan, RBC expects greater economic strength will emerge south of the border in 2011 and 2012, providing greater overall support to industry output in Saskatchewan. Ð Compiled from RBC Economics news releases.
