Polling aggregator 338 Canada is predicating an NDP win in northern Manitoba and a Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) win in northern Saskatchewan in this fall’s federal election.
The service’s latest data, updated July 28, gives the NDP a 93.6 per cent chance of winning Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, the riding covering most of northern Manitoba including Flin Flon, The Pas, Snow Lake, Pukatawagan, Thompson, Churchill and other communities. 338 gives the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) a 6.4 per cent chance of winning the upcoming election. The LPC, who nominated Judy Klassen as their candidate in early July, received a short bump in the odds following her nomination, going as high as a 21 per cent chance of winning on July 21 before the odds changed July 28. 338 describes the riding as being a “likely NDP” victory.
No parties aside from the NDP and LPC are currently listed by 338 as having above a zero per cent chance of victory.
According to its most recent forecasts, 338 currently forecasts the NDP to receive 42.5 per cent of the vote with a margin of error of plus or minus 8.1 per cent, while the LPC sit second with 31.4 per cent and a margin of error of plus or minus 7.3 per cent.
Klassen’s numbers are still located within the margin of error, not ruling out a potential campaign surge. CPC candidate Cyara Bird is currently polling at 17 per cent plus or minus 5.2. Currently, Bird’s highest vote total by the margin of error is lower than Klassen’s lowest current forecasted number. The NDP are represented in the riding by incumbent MP Niki Ashton, who will be running for her fourth term as MP for the region.
Meanwhile, a changing of the guard may be coming for the DesnethéMissinippi-Churchill River riding, which includes most of northern Saskatchewan including Creighton, Denare Beach, Pelican Narrows, Sandy Bay, Deschambault Lake and others.
CPC candidate Gary Vidal is currently listed as having a 90.5 per cent chance of winning the riding. The remaining nine percentage points are split between NDP incumbent Georgina Jolibois (7.7 per cent) and Liberal challenger Tammy Cook-Searson (1.8 per cent). 338 currently lists the riding as going “Likely CPC”.
Vidal is currently forecasted to win 36.7 per cent of the popular vote, plus or minus 7.6 per cent. Jolibois is polling at 27.5 per cent plus or minus 6.9 per cent, while Cook-Searson is polling at 24.7 plus or minus 6.4 per cent.
Scenarios exist for each of the three leading candidates to win the vote.
Current national polls are a mixed bag, with some forecasting a popular vote lead for the LPC, including polls by Research Co., Nanos and Mainstreet released in July and some showing a lead for the CPC from Léger, Angus Reid, EKOS and Abacus Data.
At least one poll, released July 17 by Abacus Data, shows a tie in the popular vote between the LPC and CPC. The next federal election will take place either on or before Oct. 21, 2019.
