Recent polling indicates the race for northern Manitoba’s seat in Parliament is heating up.
As of Sept. 15, information released by national pollster 338 Canada shows the riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski as being a “toss up” between two frontrunning candidates.
Incumbent NDP MP Niki Ashton is currently polling slightly below Liberal nominee Judy Klassen in the group’s riding-by-riding results, both in vote projections and likelihood of winning.
Klassen was listed as likely to receive around 37.4 per cent of the vote (plus or minus 7.8 per cent), while Ashton’s likely vote percentage was listed as 36.2 per cent (plus or minus 8.1 per cent). Cyara Bird, the Conservative candidate, was listed as having 19.3 per cent of the vote, plus or minus 5.7 per cent.
The group gave Klassen and the Liberals a 55.4 per cent chance of winning the riding, giving Ashton and the NDP a 44.6 per cent shot at winning re-election. No other candidates were listed as having above a zero per cent chance of winning.
In the northern Saskatchewan riding of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, Conservative candidate Gary Vidal remains the frontrunner according to 338’s calculations. Numbers on the 338 site give Vidal a 96 per cent chance of winning the riding, but each of the top three candidates - Vidal, NDP incumbent Georgina Jolibois and Tammy Cook-Searson with the Liberals - have a chance within their respective margins of error. Vidal leads the way currently with an expected 38.2 per cent of the vote (plus or minus 7.7 per cent), with Jolibois second at 29.3 per cent (plus or minus 7.4 per cent) and Cook-Searson at 25.6 per cent (plus or minus 6.5 per cent).
Vidal’s chances of winning the riding were listed at 88.8 per cent Sept. 15, with Jolibois receiving a 9.7 per cent chance of winning. Cook-Searson was listed as having a 1.4 per cent chance of winning. Neither the Green Party or People’s Party candidates were listed as having above a zero per cent chance of victory.
Voters will go to the polls Oct. 21.
