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Fall forecast

The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.

The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.

Progressively cooler days, crisp invigorating nights, vibrant shades of orange, red and yellow... This is what many Canadians have to look forward to with the arrival of the Fall season. "A normal Fall pattern for most of Canada... with a few exceptions," says Bob Anderson, Manager of Meteorology at The Weather Network. "We're expecting most of British Columbia to continue its drier than normal trend right through the Fall season as a ridge of high pressure remains parked off the West Coast," says Anderson. "The southern half of the province can also expect the warmer than normal temperatures to continue, extending summer-like weather in the region. It won't be until late Fall that the ridge breaks down and the rainy season kicks in across the province." Another exception to the normal Fall pattern will be the weather in northern sectors of Central Canada. Anderson says a trough over Hudson Bay will make for a cooler and wetter than normal Fall season in these areas. "We will see this trough deepen over Hudson Bay, which will help circulate cool, Arctic air into northern Manitoba, northern Ontario and northern Quebec," says Anderson. "Wetter than normal conditions will extend from northern Saskatchewan across to northern Quebec." The Maritimes can also expect a wetter than normal Fall season, but it will be hurricanes, tropical storms or tropical depressions to blame for that. "Tropical cyclones typically start to move more towards the Maritimes and Atlantic Canada during the Fall season, so we're still expecting a few to have an impact on the regions," says Anderson. "A corridor stretching from as far west as London, Ontario right across to Newfoundland and Labrador will have the greatest opportunity of seeing debris from tropical cyclones." On average, four tropical cyclones affect Atlantic Canada each year, says the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC). Last year three tropical cyclones entered the CHC Response Zone (RZ), which is more than half of the previous 7-year average of 5.7. In addition to those three named storms, there were three systems that became extra-tropical prior to entering the RZ. And for the third consecutive year, a tropical cyclone made landfall in Atlantic Canada, which was Hurricane Gustav. Meantime, near normal temperatures and precipitation amounts are expected for the rest of Canada over the course of the Fall season, including southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, southern Ontario and southern Quebec. So what does "near normal" mean when you're talking about Fall? "No sudden cold spells. No early winter storms that dump tons of snow. That's what we mean by near normal. Plus or minus 1 degree Celsius from normal in terms of temperature and plus or minus 10 percent from normal in terms of precipitation," says Anderson. "So for regions that we're anticipating will have a near normal Fall, they will experience a gradual cool down and a typical number of storms for the season."

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