The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
El Niño is part of a natural cycle of the ocean and atmosphere. It appears in the tropical Pacific Ocean every two to seven years. During an El Niño, the tropical sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific are warmer than usual. This warm water adds considerable additional heat and moisture to the tropical atmosphere, resulting in large scale changes to the earth's atmospheric circulation at the tropics, and to a lesser extent, elsewhere in the world. Historically, past El Niños have brought a milder and drier winter to southern Canada. The impact is strongest in western Canada where the winter temperatures are usually 1 to 3 degree Celsius above normal. Such a winter will still have periods of deep cold but they may occur less frequently. The stronger the El Niño, the farther east the milder and drier conditions seem to spread across the country. However, the Arctic and northeastern Canada often experience colder than normal winter conditions during an El Niño. During the previous El Niño of 2002-03, winter temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees above normal in northwestern Canada. The strongest El Niño on record occurred during the winter of 1997-98. It pushed the winter temperatures 4 to 7 degrees above normal in western Canada. This powerful El Niño also contributed to the devastating ice storm of January 1998 in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Research continues on the possible connection between El Niño and climate change. Over the last 30 years, Environment Canada scientists have observed that El Niños are becoming stronger and more frequent. Two of the strongest El Niños have occurred in the last 25 years, and the early 1990s experienced a prolonged El Niño that lasted three years. Scientists suspect that a climate shift in the Pacific Basin in the mid 1970s towards warmer conditions may be responsible for the higher occurrence of El Niños in recent times. Be prepared With the arrival of winter, it is important to remind Manitobans of the need to prepare for the worst that winter can bring. This includes being kept well informed because winter weather conditions can become severe or dangerous very quickly, sometimes with little or no warning. Although a moderate El Niño is expected to bring somewhat milder and drier conditions to much of the prairies, forecasters still expect variable weather this winter, including sudden cold snaps and other hazardous conditions. "The best thing to do is to keep informed of the latest weather forecasts, have a plan, and be prepared to put it into practice," says Anne-Marie Palfreeman, warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada in Winnipeg. Winter storms and excessive cold claim more than 100 lives every year in Canada. High windchills, heavy snowfall, freezing rain, blizzards and extremely cold temperatures all pose a hazard to those traveling or venturing outside. By taking a few simple precautions and staying weather-wise, you can help ensure your winter is safe and enjoyable. If you must go out during unfavorable winter conditions, dress accordingly. Drive cautiously at all times. Even a light snowfall can make the roads slippery. If you're traveling, keep a well-equipped emergency pack in your car, check weather and road conditions, en route and at destination, before you leave. Let someone know what your travel plans will be and let them know you have arrived safely. "When considering hazardous prairie winter conditions, we often overlook the onset of warm spells," says Palfreeman. Prairie winters can include brief respites from cold temperatures, especially when El Niño makes its effects known. Warmer air contains a higher level of moisture that frequently freezes on roads and sidewalks, creating extremely slippery conditions. Weather information and warnings are provided to radio and television stations and are available in some areas through special services such as VHF-FM Weatheradio and cable television stations. Weather forecasts are also available on recorded phone lines and on the Internet at www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca.
