In the weeks leading up to the 2011 Manitoba election, I wrote an opinion piece predicting that the NDP would retain the four northern seats of Flin Flon, The Pas, Thompson and Keewatinook.
To my surprise, some readers challenged me on Keewatinook. They believed the Progressive Conservatives would unseat incumbent MLA (and deputy premier) Eric Robinson.
I assured those readers that if the PCs won the seat, I would write an extensive piece on the tremendous upset. Robinson went on to win by 18 points.
With the NDP now third in provincial polls, and enjoying just 13 per cent support outside Winnipeg, some are again wondering whether the party’s stranglehold on northern Manitoba could loosen in the April election.
And they’re not just talking Keewatinook. If the polls can be believed, the NDP is on track for its lowest share of the provincial vote since the 1960s.
With the Liberals now leading them province-wide, New Democrats risk the sort of near-annihilation that befell their Saskatchewan counterparts, owners of nine seats, back in 2011.
Whether the political landscape shifts in northern Manitoba remains to be seen, but both the PCs and Liberals are stepping up their game in the region and seeking out candidates with name recognition.
They sense a unique opportunity to make inroads. And despite the North’s long history of NDP loyalty, public sentiment suggests there is indeed a prospect of change.
