The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
Canada West Foundation's Chief Economist, Todd Hirsch, yesterday released his forecast for the Manitoba economy. Manitoba's economy is forecast to grow by 2.9% in 2004. Strong crop production, a rebound in aerospace manufacturing activity, and strong prices for base metals will contribute to the expansion. Manufacturing in some industries - particularly garment manufacturing - will be hurt by increased competition from China and other low-cost Asian countries. Western Canada's economy as a whole is expected to post moderate to strong growth in 2004. High commodity prices for virtually all natural resources (except live cattle) will encourage investment, bolster employment and raise income in these areas. Energy resources will lead the way. Investment in major public and private capital projects in all four western provinces is expected to increase in 2004. Exports to the United States will benefit from the strong commodity prices, and should continue to expand as the American economy gains traction. The apparent weakness in the US economy throughout the summer is expected to be a temporary softening and not a precursor to a prolonged economic slowdown. Interest rates on both sides of the border have been very low throughout 2003 and the first half of 2004. However, both the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of Canada have indicated that rates may be rising over the next several months in reaction to the stronger economy and possible inflationary pressures. The resulting increase in lending rates will have some dampening effect on housing, construction and consumer spending. In other western Canadian provinces: Real GDP growth in British Columbia is expected to reach 3.6% this year. Strong prices for natural gas, base metals and lumber will spur activity in these areas. Tourism and exports will also pick up after two very weak years. Services and construction will be boosted as projects related to the 2010 Olympics will start to get underway. Alberta's economy will expand by close to 3.9% in 2004. Extremely high crude oil prices and strong natural gas prices will stimulate drilling activity, and investment in the oilsands projects will continue on schedule. Excellent crops will help offset the losses in exports of live cattle. Some of the best crop conditions in years will help boost Saskatchewan's real GDP growth to 2.6% this year, after leading the country in growth last year of 4.5%. Growth will be held back by weak growth in employment and consumer spending.1/9/04
