The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
Following a record high reached in November 2003, consumer confidence has turned downward in Canada, although the current level is higher than one year ago. Based on a nation-wide survey conducted by Decima Research Inc. in February, the Decima-Investors Group Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence now stands at 86.6, down 6.8 points since November and is now on par with levels recorded midway through 2003. This level is also consistent with that recorded in February 2002, and is higher than February 2003. "The apparent decline in consumer confidence shouldn't be a long-term trend," said Bill Chornous of I.G. Investment Management. "A number of smaller factors such as residual holiday bills, cold weather, higher heating bills, and increased gas costs are eating away at consumers' good mood. While there is some concern about a jobless recovery Ñ particularly in the U.S. Ñ we're seeing some real strength in the economy and the markets that bodes well for continued growth." In the United States the Index of Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan stands at 94.4 (this measure is directly comparable to the Decima-Investors Group Index). The U.S. index is also down when compared to its peak of 103.8, reached in January this year (January figure not shown on the graph). The decrease in consumer sentiment is evident across Canada but is most notable in Alberta (down 12 points to 83.2) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (down 7.9 to 83.1), where confidence is now below the national average. This large decline in the Prairie region may be related to concerns in the Agricultural sector related to BSE. Consumer Expectations. There has also been a decline in consumer expectations about economic conditions into the future (over the next year and beyond). The consumer expectations sub-index (one of two components comprising the overall index), has decreased 6.2 points, and now stands at 81.5 in Canada. U.S. consumers are more optimistic than their Canadian counterparts about future economic conditions. The U.S. expectations index rose marginally (by 0.4 points) to 88.5 in February, and now stands 7 points higher than the Canadian Expectations Index.3/15/2004
