Internal Liberal polling suggests the party has a real shot at snatching northern Manitoba from the NDP in the upcoming federal election, Maclean’s magazine reports.
In a piece published online this week, journalist Nancy Macdonald reported that the party’s polling has Liberal candidate Rebecca Chartrand trailing NDP incumbent Niki Ashton by just three points.
“Chartrand is still very much an underdog,” Macdonald wrote, but the poll represents “a massive shift” for a party that captured less than 20 per cent of the vote in Churchill-Keewatinook Aski in the last election in 2011.
Chartrand visited 30 of the riding’s 40 reserves over the summer, Macdonald wrote, calling her “a rising Anishinaabe politician” with “an inclusive leadership style.”
Ashton didn’t put much stock in the Liberal polling.
“Polling in our region is largely ineffective because of various factors, including many people don’t have access to phones or a lot of people have cell phones now,” she said, “and generally it’s difficult to get a sense through polling of the level of support. But what I can say is that [Ashton and her campaign have] travelled the riding extensively and I can definitely say, guaranteed, more than any other campaign, and there’s been really good support out there.”
Ashton said the NDP does not have internal polling for the riding.
“I can’t stress enough that we’ve always seen polling here ineffective,” she said. “You could poll, certainly, cities and towns to a larger extent, but the number of the smaller communities or isolated communities are not represented in polling results.”
Ashton was not quoted in the Maclean’s piece and said despite what Macdonald wrote, she was not approached to provide a comment.
“I feel strongly about the need for my voice and our voice to be heard, and what was clear to me is there wasn’t an effort made to reach out to our campaign,” she said, adding that she spoke with Macdonald only after the article went online.
The piece was complimentary to Ashton, calling her “talented” and “a formidable campaigner.” Though appreciative of those descriptions, Ashton said she expects major news outlets to attempt to interview everyone involved in a story.
In the article, Macdonald also cited province-wide polling showing the NDP with 18 per cent support in Manitoba, less than half of the support of both the Liberals and Conservatives at 39 per cent each.
She painted the race in Churchill-Keewatinook Aski as a two-way battle between the NDP and Liberals, as the Conservatives “appear to have given up” by fielding “paper candidate” Kyle Mirecki of Winnipeg.
Macdonald wrote that she was unsuccessful in trying to reach Mirecki for an interview. The Reminder has also made two requests of the Conservative Party for an interview with Mirecki, with neither returned as of press time Thursday.
The Liberals last won the northern Manitoba riding, then known simply as Churchill, in 2006 when Tina Keeper capitalized on vote splitting on the left to ascend to Ottawa. With no vote split in 2008, she lost handily to Ashton.
The Liberals also won the riding in 1993 when the late Elijah Harper – he of feather-waving, Meech Lake Accord-rejecting fame – held the seat for a single term. Some believed his party’s support for the long-gun registry cost him his seat.
The Conservatives – or the Progressive Conservatives,
as they were known – have not held the riding since 1979 and have been a non-factor ever since.
The federal election is Oct. 19.
