The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
Something strange happens to the roads in eastern Colombia. As you near the Venezuelan border, you suddenly come across long, dead-straight stretches that are about eight lanes wide. They are, of course, emergency airstrips for the Colombian air force to use in the event of a war with Venezuela, and they date back to a period long before the current crisis between the two countries. But they are still there, and the topic is on the table again. ItÕs hard to know how seriously to take Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Speaking on his weekly television show, Chavez denounced the recent Colombian military incursion into Ecuador. ÒThis could be the start of a war in South America,Ó he warned, addressing Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. ÒIf it occurs to you to do this in Venezuela, President Uribe, IÕll send some SukhoisÓ (Russian warplanes recently bought by Venezuela). The trigger for this crisis was a Colombian raid that killed Raul Reyes, the second-in-command of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and 16 of his companions. It was an important success in Alvaro UribeÕs long war against the Marxist guerilla army, but there was one little problem: it all happened on the far side of ColombiaÕs border with Ecuador. Colombia initially apologized, explaining that its troops had come under fire from the FARC band, but it later became clear that Reyes and his men had been betrayed by a spy and killed in their sleep. The border violation was deliberate and premeditated. Two friendly governments might have smoothed the matter over Ð no Ecuadorians were hurt Ð but these are not friendly governments. EcuadorÕs President Rafael Correa, like VenezuelaÕs Chavez, is one of the Ònew leftÓ leaders of South America, whereas Alvaro Uribe is a conservative leader with close U.S. ties. Both Correa, whose country borders Colombia on the south, and Chavez, whose country borders it on the east, essentially see FARC as a legitimate contender for power in Colombia. The Colombians have long suspected that Chavez allows FARC units to rest and retrain on Venezuelan soil. Correa has only been in power for a little over a year, but the Colombian army claims to have found a letter from Reyes to the FARC high command in the dead manÕs hard drive in which he recounts his discussions with the Ecuadorian security minister about establishing a permanent link with CorreaÕs government. So the Colombian government suspects both its neighbours of aiding and abetting FARC, and it may well be right. Venezuela and Ecuador fear that the recent Colombian incursion into the latterÕs territory to kill FARC fighters may be only the first of many, and they also worry that the United States is encouraging such attacks as a way to destabilize these two leftist governments. They, too, may be right. Given these concerns, the apparent over-reaction of Chavez and Correa Ð Ecuador has also dispatched troops to the Colombian border, and both countries have expelled their Colombian ambassadors Ð may be quite rational. They may be trying to overstretch the Colombian army and give it a two-front problem, in order to protect their FARC friends and deter any further cross-border operations by the Colombians. But theyÕd never actually go to war, would they? It still seems very unlikely, in particular because the far more experienced Colombian army would dismantle any forces the Ecuadorians sent against it in a matter of days. Venezuela and Colombia are more evenly matched, and for that very reason it would not be in either governmentÕs interest to have a war: neither side would win. So thatÕs settled, then. Except that I keep remembering those airstrips on the roads. Long before Uribe and Chavez came to power, somebody thought that a war between Colombia and Venezuela was likely enough that they spent all that money on preparing for it.
