The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
Who will win on November 2nd? There is lots of speculation, hundreds of polls taken, in depth scrutiny by many experienced and wise followers of American politics, but the bottom line at this writing is that the presidential race is a dead heat. The latest poll in Florida shows Bush and Kerry tied at 46 per cent, Nader (the Green Candidate) at one per cent with seven per cent undecided. Florida is one state that Bush needs more than Kerry if he is to retain the Presidency. One in depth state by state poll shows Bush with 221 electoral votes, Kerry with 199 and 118 tied. (A candidate needs 270 votes to win). The problem that polling experts are facing this time is that it is impossible to predict who will win. What it really means is that the one who has the ground game to get out the vote will likely win. But remember, it is winner take all in the vote: for example, if a candidate gets one more vote in Ohio than the other, he gets all of Ohio's 20 electoral votes, and the latest poll there shows Bush with a 47-45 lead ? too close to call ? unlike Wyoming where the President has a 65 per cent to 29 per cent lead for that state's three votes. It is interesting to see where each candidate has strength. California is Kerry country (50 per cent - 41 per cent) and has the most electoral votes at 55, also New York (51-43) with 31 and Massachusetts (50-36) with 12. Bush is solid in the deep south (except Florida) and most of the west. The difference is that many of Bush's western states such as Oklahoma (61 per cent - 38 per cent) with three electoral votes are sparsely populated. There are at present 11 "battleground states" where both parties are putting all of their time and resources, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and Michigan where T.V. attack ads abound. In fact, there are so many ads making millions for the networks that regular advertisers have been asked to give up their spots until after the election. Some of the T.V. ads are intentional distortions or "spin". For example, a Republican ad in Florida shows a distorted picture of Kerry with the text saying, "He voted five times to raise Medicare fees". Democrat ads accuse Bush of being responsible for the shortage of flu vaccine, a groundless accusation. The Republicans countered with the claim that frivolous lawsuits over patient reactions to the shots, brought by greedy trial lawyers (like John Edwards) have driven vaccine manufacturers out of the country. Bush also claimed he would get vaccines from Canada, which has an over supply. If this happens can Canadian drug exports to the U.S.A. be far behind? Also at this writing, Democrats are trying to fire up the black vote in Florida and are using the black churches to do it. Bush got only eight per cent of this vote in 2000 but is doing much better this time as many black voters are opposed to such issues as gay marriages. It of course all depends on the turnout. An American friend Tom who lives in Nova Scotia, and a rabid Bush supporter, sent the Corner a prediction. Tom is a friend of U.S. Ambassador to Canada Paul Celucci. Tom's predictions are as follows: Kerry will carry 15 states for 209 electoral votes, including California (55), New York (31), Illinois (21), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), Mass. (12) Maryland (10) and a few others, while Bush will take 35 states for 328 votes. Tom predicts the vote will be Bush 53 per cent, Kerry 46 per cent, and Nader one per cent which will mean the undecideds will go for Bush as they did for Paul Martin in the Canadian election One experienced pundit who was advisor to four presidents, in a CNN interview claimed that undecided voters break for the challenger. He also claimed that Bush with huge leads in Texas and the south could win the popular vote and lose the election, which has never happened before to a sitting President. By the way, the before-mentioned U.S. ambassador to Canada claimed in a speech that the U.S. election is hindering efforts to open the American border to Canadian beef. Celucci blames Democratic Senate leader Tom Daschle running for re-election in South Dakota as the reason action is stalled. He hints that even if the Democrats win the border won't open soon. Interesting races to watch? Let us not forget that there are a lot of other election races on November 2 although the Presidency is the big prize. One Senate race to watch is Florida where Democrat Betty Castor is trying to hold on to the seat, but is getting a major challenge from Mel Martinez, a high profile Cuban?American and former Bush Housing minister. Martinez is a rags-to-riches story, escaping Castro's Cuba, becoming a major lawyer, and has held a number of positions in the State. He would be the first Cuban-American elected to the U.S. Senate. At present they are tied at 46 per cent with eight per cent undecided. It should be a good one to watch. Also let us see if Daschle can keep his seat in Republican South Dakota. It would be a major blow to the Democrats if he lost. What happens if the Presidential election is a tie, say 269-269, which could happen? If this is the result, the House of Representatives decides who is President ? no help for Kerry there as the Republicans are expected to hold a majority. The Senate will decide the Vice-presidency. If the Democrats gain control of the Senate, there could be a Bush-Edwards administration. Interesting? Only in America!
