The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
Four More Years! "Four more years, four more years, four more years!" supporters of George W. Bush chanted over and over as the sitting President won state after state on his way to an impressive 3.5 million vote lead over a disbelieving John Kerry. It wasn't a huge lead given over 120 million people voted, but it was a far cry from 2000 when Bush lost the popular vote to Al Gore, and squeaked out a bare Electoral College win. At this writing, Kerry has 252 votes in the College and can not make the 270 needed, with Bush well over the 270. The race came down to Florida and Ohio, where the candidates had spent so much time in the past few months. Unlike last time, Florida was not a "nail-biter" with the President winning a substantial majority, with massive leads in northern and central parts of the state. In one northern county called Pasco, won by Gore last time, the President had an 18,000 vote majority. All in all, Bush won 56 of the 67 counties in Florida, showing strength everywhere in the State. Also in Ohio, which no Republican has ever lost and still won the Presidency, Bush persevered in a state which has lost thousands of jobs in the past four years to overseas countries such as China. What happened to the Democrats? Why did someone who was blamed for the war in Iraq, the loss of jobs, etc., and obviously lost the three debates, do so well? Election "experts" have lots of answers as to why the Republicans did so well, both in winning the Presidency and gaining in the Senate and House. Some credit the superior "ground game" which brought out huge numbers of Conservative and Christian voters to support this faith-based President and his ideals. Others claim the War on Terror, a huge issue for Bush in all surveys brought out voters determined not to change a Commander in Chief in time of war. (As noted in previous articles, no sitting President has lost while America was at war). Also, it is mentioned that the anti-gay marriage amendments in 11 states, all which passed, brought out great numbers of voters who also voted for Bush. The Republicans headed by political genius Carl Rove had over a million volunteers, manning the phones, knocking on doors and taking voters to the polls, while the Democrats relied heavily on paid staff. Political people know that in a close race, the organization on the ground can win it or lose it for a candidate. The vote turnout, while still only about 60 per cent nationally (it was over 71 per cent in Florida) was the heaviest since 1968, and had a lot to do with Bush's win, and the Democrats' losses in other races. I observed precinct (we call them polls) 182 in N.E. St. Petersburg on election day. At 6:45 a.m. there were about 25 people in line waiting for the 7:00 a.m. opening, plus about a dozen observers, poll-watchers, Kerry/Bush supporters, etc. At 8:00 a.m. there were about 50 voters inside, and 50 lined up outside. This continued most of the day and evening as the party's "machines" got out the vote. A lady wearing a large banner saying "Los Angeles Times", was conducting an exit poll ? asking a random number of voters exiting the precinct how they had voted. Pollsters then make a prediction based on the results. Exit polls were first widely reported in the 1980 contest when Reagan beat Carter. Exit polls across the nation showed Reagan winning, which of course he did. Exit polls this time showed Kerry ahead, and of course they were wrong. As one commentator said: "Polls are only an indicator, and shouldn't be taken too seriously." He is right for many reasons, as we know from results in Canada. There were a few interesting election statistics. Bush had 59.4 million votes to Kerry's 55.9 million, won 30 states to the Senator's 20 and 274 electoral votes to 252 with some counts still incomplete. As reported in The Reminder, Bush was the first President since his father in 1988 to win over 50 per cent of the popular vote. In elections since then, strong third party candidates such as Ross Perot and Ralph Nader drew a lot of votes, making it difficult to get a majority. This time it was really only Bush or Kerry. Bush also increased his share of the black vote but only from 9 per cent in 2000 to 11 per cent this time. He also lost the under 30 vote, which however was only 17 per cent of the total. He did substantially well among married women and overwhelmingly among those who attend church regularly. His support was very strong in "middle America" and among the military and their families. See 'U.S.' P.# Con't from P.# What about a few interesting races? As predicted (sort of) in "The Corner" Democratic Senate leader Tom Daschle lost in Republican South Dakota. With a heavy Conservative turnout, the man called "the great obstructionist." By Senate Republicans, failed in his fourth election and was a dead duck. His career probably ended at 56. It was the first time in 51 years that a Congressional Leader went down to defeat. Leader for the Democrats in the passed 10 years, Daschle did all he could to block the President's legislation and appointments. He will not be sorely missed by Republicans in Congress. Remember Jim Bunning? Baseball fans may remember him as a star pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, known as the "Headhunter" because of his penchant for throwing at batter's heads. In one incident, Bunning bounced a ball off a player's head into the infield. The much-feared player got himself elected as a U.S. Senator from Kentucky a few years ago, and repeated his victory in a close race on November 2nd. The campaign was wild and dirty. His opponent accused Bunning of having mental problems because of some erratic behaviour, and the 73 year-old Senator accused his Democratic opponent of homosexual behaviour. Bush took Kentucky, and his "coattails" obviously helped "The Headhunter" win. Another hinted-at prediction in the October 28th article was that of Mel Martinez, the first Cuban American ever elected to the U.S. Senate. Wildly popular among Florida Cuban-Americans, he won a close race and took away what was a Democratic Senate seat, helping the Republicans get a 55-44-1 lead in the Chamber. Martinez considers himself a moderate, although as a strong Catholic he strongly opposes abortion and gay marriages. He got a lot of support from Florida Catholics as well as Spanish-Americans. He is definitely one to watch in the future. What about U.S.-Canada relations with four more years of Bush? To his credit, Paul Martin ordered his Cabinet to not comment on the U.S. campaign, and to stop any anti-American comments. A wise thing to do, Paul. There is no future for Canada in being hostile to our powerful neighbour. The newly elected President hinted he would be reaching out to America's former allies who had opposed the war in Iraq. Time will tell, and much more to come on this topic.
