The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
Predicting the Future Predicting the future has been going on since humans appeared on earth. In fact, there are many fascinating stories from every century about predictors and predictions. Today, researchers, scientists, and, yes, political observers and politicians are in the forefront in saying what will happen tomorrow. We are of course well aware of the global warming issue and the dire predictions of some that all the ice will melt and cause massive flooding and destruction. Other scientists say this has happened time and again in the past and we are still here, and point out that there is little real warming in the Antarctic and that the extremely cold winters we have seen recently do not support the concept. Nevertheless, the G8 countries are showing concern about pollution and are developing things like electric cars, and controlling greenhouse gases, but this is hardly the case in the new economies like China, India and Taiwan, where severe pollution is a way of life. The worldwide economic downturn in the past two years, coupled with the major financial crises and jobs losses, has had the economic predictors speaking almost daily of dire consequences to come. In Canada, downturn-caused deficits have the opposition parties rubbing their hands with glee as they try to put the blame on the Harper government. But they are offering non-helpful solutions. The Liberals and NDP want a massive increase in the number of people eligible for employment insurance by lowering the minimum work hours needed and standardizing them across the country. The Liberals were threatening an election over the issue until they found that the public did not want one. Now the issue is in a committee that will report this fall, but the Libs are sticking to their proposal in spite of an independent report that said it would add $5 billion a year to the deficit. By the way, it was the former Liberal government that devised the present system, which bases the hours needed on regional unemployment rates. Some pundits are predicting this issue could cause a fall election. Really, the Canadian economy and banking system have survived quite well under Harper's leadership, with the banking system getting high praise across the world. So far pollsters have been saying that the Harper government has not received the credit many say it deserves for its approach to reviving the economy, although hard-line conservatives deride the deficits. The two major parties are tied in the polls, but with Harper still the favourite choice for PM. If the opposition forces an unwanted election this fall, which is really unlikely, the results will probably be the same and just cost taxpayers millions. What about predicting results in individual ridings, as political writers love to do? One is the major political writer for Manitoba's major daily, who now is commenting on the Terry Duguid candidacy in Winnipeg South, currently held by giant-killer Rod Bruinooge. Bruinooge, head of Manitoba's aboriginal caucus, beat Liberal heavyweight Reg Alcock in 2006, then handily won re-election in 2008. The writer claims that Duguid, who has just moved into the riding, is a threat if the Liberals stay close to the Tories in the polls. Duguid is a former city councilor, the only office he has ever held. He lost running for mayor, for MLA, and twice was defeated by Joy Smith in Kildonan. As reward for running for the Liberals, Duguid received some plush appointments by Chrtien, and recently left his job to prepare for the next campaign. Just because he has lost all these elections doesn't mean he will lose forever, but that is a good prediction. Tory Wally Daudrich won a squeaker in the recent Conservative nomination contest in the Churchill riding. Wally, who also ran last time, will campaign on the basis of getting a government MP elected instead of a fourth party candidate who can do nothing for the riding and get nothing. Hopefully he will point out the difference between the current Churchill MP and neighbouring Member Rob Clarke, who has obtained millions of infrastructure dollars for his riding. Rob is always optimistic and is obviously a good convincer with a seat at the government table. The Conservatives have not won Churchill since Cecil Smith in the '70s, but there is always hope. Any predictions? Roger's Right Corner runs Wednesdays.
