The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
ÒHave you noticed,Ó my wife asked, Òthat when one of AmericaÕs allies thinks it has a green light to invade somewhere, they always do it in the summer?Ó She was right: Iraq invaded Kuwait in August, 1990; Israel invaded Lebanon in July, 2006; Georgia invaded South Ossetia in August, 2008. Israel really did have a green light from Washington, but Saddam Hussein was catastrophically wrong, and Mikhail Saakashvili was, too. The difference is that the US government continues to support Saakashvili even after his smash-and-grab assault on South Ossetia went so badly wrong. The Bush administration is just trying to save face Ð sending in Òhumanitarian aidÓ after the shooting stops, for example Ð and Washington never really backed GeorgiaÕs aggression. But if the Russians donÕt understand that, weÕre heading for a new Cold War. That would be a very stupid way to spend the early 21st century, but the comically belligerent Vice-President Dick Cheney is not the only one declaring that ÒRussian aggression must not go unanswered.Ó The US and British media (but not those in most other Western countries) are talking as if Communists still ruled in Russia had committed a wanton act of aggression. Republican presidential candidate John McCain suggests expelling the Russians from the G8. Even relatively balanced people like Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice are using Cold War analogies: ÒThis is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten a neighbour, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it.Ó But Russia didnÕt threaten Georgia; it responded to a surprise Georgian attack on South Ossetia, a territory where there were Russian peacekeeping troops by international agreement. It has not occupied GeorgiaÕs capital, nor has it overthrown the government. Unhappy It is true that Moscow was unhappy about GeorgiaÕs close ties with the United States, which included American sponsorship of Georgia for NATO membership. It is also true that, presented with the opportunity by SaakashviliÕs attack, Russia has taken advantage of it to smash his shiny new American-trained army. It may even be true that Prime Minister Vladimir PutinÕs government deliberately suckered Saakashvili into his attack by provoking him in various ways, but that is far from certain. Even if that did happen, it was still Georgia that launched an all-out assault on the enclave of South Ossetia on August 7, and Georgian peacekeeping troops who turned their weapons on their Russian colleagues. If the Russians had not reacted as they did, Georgia would now control the whole territory, and the surviving South Ossetians would mostly be refugees in (Russian) North Ossetia. That does not give vengeful South Ossetians the right to drive the Georgian minority in the enclave out of their villages, as some reports suggested may be happening, and it is the RussiansÕ duty to stop it. Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia because he thought his American ties would frighten the Russians into silence, but the US was never going to fight a war against Russia over Georgia. So now we have the charade of the Òhumanitarian aid,Ó and the brazen cheek of the US special envoy to the region, Matthew Bryza, telling the BBC that the violence strengthens GeorgiaÕs case to join the NATO alliance. ÒRussia, a country with 30 times the population [of Georgia] decided to roll into its much smaller neighbour and tried to roll over it,Ó said Bryza. ÒIt failed to roll over Georgia, but it would never have even thought of doing this if Georgia were already a member of NATO.Ó This misrepresentation of the truth will carry little weight with the larger Western European members of NATO, so that isnÕt going to happen. The Russian troops will probably all be gone from Georgia within a week. There will be a certain chill in the air for a while, but the Cold War is not coming back. At least, not over this incident. Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist. His column appears Mondays.
