The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
Many Canadians argue that too little change came from the recent federal election to justify the millions spent. But the election transformed the political landscape in ways that could have very long-lasting effects. Indeed this transformation goes to the very heart of the complex relationship between western Canada and Quebec. The big story was not the ConservativesÕ failure to secure a majority, but rather their growing dominance as the only truly national party. There is no alternative government waiting in the wings, and the Conservatives led the Liberals by more than 11 per cent in the popular vote, sweeping the West and becoming the dominant party in Ontario. By contrast, NDP support is thin and broadly dispersed, while the Liberal party is now largely restricted to regional enclaves in Toronto and anglophone Montreal. Once known as CanadaÕs natural governing party, the Liberals have only a small toehold in western Canada and francophone Quebec. At the same time, the fact that the Conservatives did not secure a majority means that parliamentarians will have to give serious consideration as to how to make minority governments work. Minorities may be the new normal, and thus we must find a way to get beyond paralyzing partisanship and constant threats of elections. There was a momentary fear on election night that the Bloc Quebecois would trigger a backlash in western Canada as their 50 seats denied Stephen Harper a majority. However, this potential backlash failed to materialize when it became clear that the difference between a majority and a strong minority is almost inconsequential. Harper does not have a majority, but neither does he face early defeat in the House. Thus the failure to capture more seats in Quebec is at best a minor blemish on a solid performance. The Conservatives will need some opposition support going forward, but that support is more likely to come from the Liberals and NDP than from the Bloc. What the election results show is that the path to a majority Conservative government is more likely to run through Ontario or Atlantic Canada than through Quebec. Given that only a handful of new seats would be needed to produce a Conservative majority, there is no reason to believe that these cannot be found in Atlantic Canada or Ontario. A national majority is now in sight regardless of what happens in Quebec. The future of the Bloc is therefore of much greater consequence for Quebec than it is for Canada. The BlocÕs future will determine if the province is in the game or on the sidelines in Ottawa.
