The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
To no oneÕs surprise, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called an election. He really had no choice as the opposition seemed determined to defeat his minority government well before the October 2009 date he and Parliament had set for the next campaign. The Liberals accuse him of breaking his word, but Harper maintains that fixed election dates are only valid with a majority government or in a minority when the opposition supports the idea, which is certainly not in this chaotic Parliament. Creighton MP Rob Clarke, a Tory, told this writer there was little to no progress in the House and chaos reigned supreme. Harper is smart to be calling an election the Liberal opposition fears, mainly because of their leader, rather than be defeated. So what will happen? A number of political writers have expressed surprise that Harper would be so determined to call a vote while in a virtual tie in the polls with the Grits, with the best he can hope for being another minority. But they put too much stock in polling results, which in our electoral system are notoriously iffy. Besides, a recent survey asking ÒWho would make the best Prime Minister?Ó showed Harper with nearly 50 per cent support. The NDPÕs Jack Layton had 30 per cent while Liberal leader Stephane Dion came in with less than 20 per cent. With a whopping 30 per cent lead on Dion (Layton is not going to be PM), Harper is counting on leadership to be a big issue in the campaign. ThatÕs especially true with Dion continuing to promote the ÒGreen Shaft,Ó recognized by the public as another Liberal tax. The question is, if voters want Harper for PM, will they vote for DionÕs candidate? In any case, for those who believe in polls, a late August one done for an eastern paper showed the Tories with an eight-point lead on the Grits. More recent polls have shown an even bigger advantage. In CanadaÕs Òfirst past the postÓ system, people often vote for the candidate they like, so it is not a referendum on the leader. But many pundits insist that party leadership is a big factor, especially if there is a large spread between the leadersÕ popularity. Of course Dion could still gain popularity, but this is unlikely with his lack of communication skills and believability. Getting good candidates is important for all parties. They look for those who have personal appeal and hopefully are liked and respected in their ridings. It also helps if they are able to do something for the businesses and people in their area. Electing a government member is a huge plus, notably in the North, as critics can provide little except complaints. Liberal insiders are writing off their MP in Churchill, Tina Keeper, who only won last time on a vote split by two NDP candidates. DionÕs ÒGreen ShaftÓ also has no appeal to industrial communities such as Flin Flon and Thompson, in spite of KeeperÕs defense of the plan and attack in this paper on Rob ClarkeÕs criticism of the Liberal approach. Clarke should be a clear winner over continuous protester David Orchard, a Liberal who has little influence in the riding. The Liberals are also greatly concerned about their two Winnipeg seats, St. Boniface and Winnipeg South Centre. In the former, Tory Shelly Glover, a police sergeant, is being well received in low-profile Grit Raymond SimardÕs riding. In the latter, football hero Trevor Kennerd is expected to retire Anita Neville, who barely won last time. In fact it could happen that the only Liberal MP left in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta will be Ralph Goodale in Regina. The Conservatives scored a coup in convincing former Winnipeg Jet Thomas Steen to run for them in another Winnipeg riding, Elmwood-Transcona. Steen has a good chance of following the footsteps of other hockey-players-turned-politicians like Howie Meeker, Red Kelly and Syl Apps. The Tories are targeting this riding, which is bidding farewell to political icon Bill Blaikie of the NDP. He has retired. RogerÕs Right Corner runs Wednesdays.
