The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
Hindsight is always better than foresight, especially in predicting election outcomes, and there were a lot of strange predictions in the very strange campaign we just experienced. Pollsters were for a time predicting all kinds of bad things for Stephen Harper and Stphane Dion and even touting Jack Layton as a possible leader of the opposition. A couple of days before the election, they stopped predicting a rise from the dead for Dion and accepted that the Conservatives were going to win, but by how much was the question. Dion had a bad time with his Green Shift plan to tax carbon, definitely a non-starter with the voters, as was LaytonÕs promise to tax businesses more. In our global economy, most Canadians realize that taxes on businesses cause companies to do one of three things: pass the cost onto consumers, lay off staff or go bankrupt. Voters also did not buy the argument that the carbon tax would be revenue neutral, particularly when the economy started to dominate the campaign. Dion stubbornly stuck to his issue, much to the chagrin of his advisors. Surprisingly, some Liberal candidates kept promoting the Green Shift, too, including ChurchillÕs Tina Keeper, even though it would have meant economic disaster for the region. Her vote totals were way down Ð enough said! What about the Greenies? They got a lot of votes but were not a threat in any riding. Elizabeth May was not a great success as a campaigner, especially when she was promoting the Liberals. What May and the Greens did was suck votes from the Liberals and NDP, helping the Tories in some ridings. Dion tried at the end to convince Green and NDP voters to go with him to hurt the Tories, but few listened. Dion was toast as Liberal leader and has announced he will step down. Stphane is the first non-interim Liberal leader since Edward Blake in the 1880s not to become prime minister. The Liberal knives were already out on election night, and the same old faces are back touting themselves as leadership material, although Justin Trudeau is a new mention. ThereÕs also the Tory-like John Manley and Gerard Kennedy, but remember it was Kennedy who gave longshot Dion the leadership. The Grit cupboard is bare and any leadership candidate will have to raise or borrow millions to get in the race. Dion still owes hundreds of thousand of dollars from his own leadership campaign. It is not a happy time for the Liberal Party, as they are broke and desperately need a policy conference and a new approach. Their votes collapsed in many areas as they elected just seven members west of Ontario. They would have been better off if Harper had achieved a majority, as it would have given them more time to recover. Many pundits were very surprised that the Conservatives lost a seat in Tory Alberta, with Rahim Jaffer going down to the NDPÕs Linda Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona. A couple of Tory insiders told this writer that the NDP, which holds the seat at the provincial level, had its local organization work hard to unseat the long-time MP. Duncan, who lost to Jaffer in 2006 by 10 points, made a major effort this time to rally the troops and in one canvass knocked on 6,000 doors. Most agree that this is hardly a breakthrough for Layton, and the new member will likely be a Òone-hit wonder,Ó especially as she is such a strong environmentalist. Like Liberal Reg Alcock in 2006, Jaffer spent too much time traveling and not enough time in his riding. He shouldnÕt suffer financially, though, as he married Tory minister and MP Helena Guergis, re-elected in Ontario, the day after the election. Jaffer will probably receive a federal appointment at least until the next election. RogerÕs Right Corner runs Wednesdays.
