The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
ÒTwenty-four hours a day of rolling news to fill,Ó lamented the senior producer of an all-news radio station recently, Òand only two hours of actual news to fill it.Ó But his problem is minor compared to that of people condemned to cover the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, where there is now almost nothing new to report at all. There is plenty of incident, of course. More than 200 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip against nearby Israeli towns in one week recently. Some were a new, longer-range version that reached Ashkelon, a large town that had never been hit before. One Israeli died, and several were injured. Israel retaliated with massive raids on the northern Gaza Strip by land and air. Two Israeli soldiers were killed, and about 120 Palestinians. Israel says 90 per cent of the Palestinian casualties were fighters; Palestinian sources say half were civilians, including 22 children. Given the crowded living conditions of the Gaza Strip, the latter estimate is more plausible, although it would make no sense for Israeli forces to target civilians deliberately. Then, on March 6, a Palestinian walked into Merkaz Harav religious school in Jerusalem and killed eight young Israelis before being shot down himself. All of these events were extensively covered in the rolling news, but in what sense was there anything new about them? It was also the same old stories on the diplomatic level. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, whose influence only extends to those parts of the West Bank not directly controlled by Israeli soldiers or settlers, declared that he would not take part in further Òpeace talksÓ with the Israelis until they agreed a cease-fire that included the Gaza Strip. The shaky coalition that governs Israel was undismayed by this, since any concessions to Palestinians in the peace talks, should they occur, would ignite internal quarrels that would bring down Prime Minister Ehud OlmertÕs government. The Palestinian-Israeli quarrel has re-entered one of those lengthy phases when neither side can agree on what terms it would be willing to offer the other for a peace settlement. In Israel, the split is embodied in the government itself, with various coalition parties drawing Òred linesÓ about which concession or gesture would cause them to quit. Among the Palestinians, it is now incarnated in a formal division of territory between Fatah and Hamas. From Washington, it is possible to conjure up some flimsy optimism about the situation Ð ÒTen months is a long time. ThereÕs plenty of time to get a deal done,Ó said President Bush recently Ð but no deal is going to happen while Bush is still in office. Whether it might happen under another administration is another question, but not one that is likely to have a happier answer. Imagine that at this time next year President Obama, or President McCain, or President Clinton (H.) decides to spend some political capital in the Middle East. Could it achieve anything? The two Palestinian authorities will still be struggling to gain the upper hand in the internecine power struggle, which means that neither party can afford to make significant concessions to the Israelis. So nothing can happen until Fatah re-establishes control over the Gaza Strip (unlikely), or until Hamas dominates a reunified Palestinian authority that includes the West Bank. Even if that happened, Hamas would still have to decide that it really wants to negotiate with Israel, and the Israelis would then have to decide that they were willing to talk to Hamas. Not only that, but to offer Hamas serious territorial concessions in return for a cease-fire or peace treaty. None of that is at all likely. There will be no substantive peace talks this year, and there will be none next year either. ItÕs all just diplomatic posturing punctuated by killing. Both sides hate the phrase Òcycle of violence,Ó because it implies that both sides are responsible for it. But it is the correct phrase, and ÒcyclesÓ arenÕt news.
