The Reminder is making its archives back to 2003 available on our website. Please note that, due to technical limitations, archive articles are presented without the usual formatting.
All of the media attention around the US presidential campaign is focused on Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as if the Democratic nomination will decide the election. But a recent poll commissioned by the National Campaign Fund shows that Republican John McCain can do the unthinkable Ð win the DemocratsÕ stronghold of California. Clinton and Obama have problems in California. The poll concludes that Òwhen voters learn of ObamaÕs support of licenses to illegal aliens, they become far less likely to support him. They are also far less likely to support Obama when they learn of his support for more spending, to be funded by higher taxes.Ó As for Clinton, when Òvoters learn the details of ClintonÕs failed health care proposal Ð which she has tried to resurrect Ð they become far less likely to support her.Ó The fighting amongst Democrats is beginning to take its toll, with the poll saying McCain benefits from the contentious battle between Clinton and Obama. Hillary won the Democratic primary in California relying heavily on Hispanic voters. These voters are much friendlier to McCain than Obama. McCain has traditionally done well with Hispanic voters in Arizona, his home state. In addition to California, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Connecticut look like Democratic states that could easily shift to McCain. Another undercurrent that is running against any Democratic candidate is the electorateÕs perception of Iraq. According to a survey by the Pew Research Centre: ÒPublic views of the military effort in Iraq have become more positive. The results suggest that, barring another reversal, DemocratsÕ ability to use the war as a political weapon could be somewhat curtailed, particularly when the general election campaign begins.Ó McCain is unique in that he advocated the surge of troops into Iraq. When President Bush adopted the McCain strategy of a surge, Iraq news turned more positive. These opinions track more closely with the views of a majority of Americans, and the Democrat contendersÕ position of immediate withdrawal is only popular with the hard left in their party. Finally, even if Obama wins the nomination as his delegate lead suggests, ClintonÕs attacks will damage Obama for the general election and telegraph a similar strategy that will be adopted by McCain in the fall. The longer this bloodletting continues in the Democratic Party, the less likely the party will take the White House.
