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Polls show Tories, NDP leading federal races in north, Liberals in play

Federal polls continue to show a likely NDP win in northern Manitoba and a likely Conservative victory in northern Saskatchewan, but other candidates are still in the race.
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Federal polls continue to show a likely NDP win in northern Manitoba and a likely Conservative victory in northern Saskatchewan, but other candidates are still in the race.

According to information updated August 25 by nationwide polling aggregator 338 Canada, two candidates in the Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River riding have above a negligible chance of victory - Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) candidate Gary Vidal and NDP incumbent Georgina Jolibois.

The polling service gives Vidal a 94.5 per cent chance of winning, with a 5.2 per cent chance of a Jolibois win. Liberal candidate Tammy Cook-Searson is listed as having a 0.3 per cent chance of winning the riding.

In 338’s most recent vote projections, Vidal is slated to receive 39.5 per cent of the vote, plus or minus 7.2 per cent, with Jolibois polling at 29 per cent, plus or minus 6.9 per cent.

Cook-Searson has shifted firmly into third place with 24.6 per cent, plus of minus 5.9 per cent.

The recent 338 findings show Niki Ashton and the federal NDP have an 85 per cent chance of winning re-election in the riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. Liberal candidate Judy Klassen is the only other candidate in the riding considered to have a chance of victory above zero, coming in at 15 per cent.

The aggregator, which combines and weighs results from multiple national polling services, currently gives Ashton an estimated 40.3 per cent of the vote, plus or minus 7.8 per cent, with Klassen receiving 32.9 per cent, plus or minus 6.9 per cent. The margins of error show Klassen still has a chance of victory.

Nationally, 338 currently has the CPC sitting in first place in the popular vote with an average of 34.4 per cent, with the Liberals not far behind with an average of 32.7 per cent. Despite that, the site also forecasts a Liberal minority government, with the party forecasted to win an average of 153 seats after 250,000 general election simulations - just ahead of the CPC’s average of 146 forecasted seats. 338 gives the Liberals a 57 per cent chance of finishing the election with the most seats.

The federal election will take place either on or before October 21.

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