If you have found nearly 50 years worth of elections in the Flin Flon constituency to be too predictable, then the 2016 campaign is for you.
MLA Clarence Pettersen’s entry into the race as an independent, combined with surging PC and Liberal fortunes in opinion polls, give the appearance of a realistic path to victory for someone other than the NDP.
After weeks of speculation, Pettersen announced Wednesday he would be on the ballot with no party affiliation. He characterized his independency as an advantage, saying he puts his constituents ahead of party politics.
The fear among NDP loyalists is that Pettersen could split the progressive vote and push either the PCs or Liberals over the finish line.
NDP supporters in this region remember all too well what happened when Churchill MP Bev Desjarlais lost the party nomination to Niki Ashton.
Running as an independent in 2006, Desjarlais captured 17 per cent of the vote – votes that many presume would have otherwise gone to Ashton and allowed her to defeat successful Liberal candidate Tina Keeper.
But I’m no fan of the theory that independent candidates “steal” votes. In fact, I know a number of people who supported Desjarlais in that election who would never dream of voting for Ashton. I’m sure Pettersen will draw some equally loyal ballot-casters.
Independent candidates do not have a strong record of winning elections in Manitoba, however. Key for Pettersen will be how many voters give him, rather than the NDP, credit for the significant investments made in this riding over the past four and a half years.
Provincewide, the PCs continue to lead opinion polls by massive margins. If the results hold, the question isn’t whether the PCs will form the next government, but by how many seats.
It’s reasonable to assume that some of this love for the Tories has spread to Flin Flon, not unlike how Trudeaumania 2.0 aided the Liberals in winning a plurality of Flin Flonners’ votes in the last federal election.
The PCs also have the benefit of inviting Flin Flon voters to be part of what is most likely the next government. Call it the “If you can’t beat us, join us” approach.
Meanwhile, the Liberals are looking to make inroads in northern Manitoba. Provincewide polls suggest the Grits have supplanted the NDP as the second-place party, but it’s not clear whether they can ultimately coalesce the sizable anti-PC vote around their candidates.
The Liberals seem to attack the NDP as much as they do the PCs. Visiting Flin Flon last weekend, Liberal leader Rana Bokhari tapped into the emotional response many northerners had to the NDP’s elimination of a subsidy for highway busing.
“Don’t we believe in making sure that everyone has equal opportunities and opportunity may very well be because of transportation?” she asked rhetorically. “Isn’t that just who we are? Isn’t that what Manitobans are?”
Of course it’s more than possible that all of the time and money the other candidates are investing into unseating the NDP will be for naught. It’s impossible to underestimate the resiliency the New Democrats have in a region they have owned since 1969.
Moreover, Tom Lindsey, the NDP candidate, has proven his strength and appeal by unseating Pettersen for the party nomination just months before a tough election.
I have been watching politics for a long time. Not everyone could pull off what Lindsey managed to do.
He will likely attract traditional NDP allies, such as First Nations, unions and social-program advocates, to his side.
In sum, April 19 could well mark the first truly competitive election in the Flin Flon constituency in two generations – and regardless of whom you support, that’s healthy for democracy.
Local Angle is published on Fridays.
